See whether the lease, the traffic and the ticket add up.
Foot traffic, average ticket and rent, modeled the way an independent cafe actually earns.
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The assumptions, benchmarks, and drivers behind your coffee shop projections.
A cafe is a traffic business, not a capacity business, so this template starts from the people who walk past and come in: monthly footfall, the share that buys, and how often a regular comes back within the same month. Those three numbers produce transactions, and transactions times the average ticket produce revenue. Cost of goods runs at roughly 28 to 32 percent of net revenue for espresso and pastry, which leaves a gross margin near 70 percent. Everything below that line, rent, staff, utilities, insurance and the loan payment, is fixed and has to be covered before the owner sees anything.
An independent shop in a decent location does roughly $300,000 to $700,000 a year. Build-out plus espresso equipment commonly lands between $150,000 and $250,000, financed over seven to ten years. Because most of that money is borrowed, the number a lender screens on is the debt service coverage ratio: EBITDA divided by the annual loan payment. Below 1.25 the loan does not get written. This template surfaces DSCR every month alongside fixed cost coverage, so the plan is checked against what a bank will actually accept, not just against whether the P and L is positive.
Average ticket moves a cafe more than footfall does, because footfall is bounded by the location you already signed for while ticket is a decision you make. Adding a food attachment that lifts the ticket by a dollar flows almost entirely to gross profit, whereas chasing more traffic costs marketing and eventually hits the ceiling of the room. The second lever is the opening ramp: a cafe takes most of a year to build a regular morning crowd, and modeling month one at steady-state demand is the fastest way to build a plan that runs out of cash in month four.
Everything you need to know about coffee shop financial modeling.
The numbers that matter most for a coffee shop business, calculate any of them free.
Average Order Value is the mean revenue generated per transaction. It is the fundamental r...
Gross Margin is the percentage of revenue remaining after subtracting the direct costs of ...
Repeat Purchase Rate measures the percentage of customers who make more than one purchase....
Burn rate is the net amount of cash a company consumes each month. It measures how quickly...
Runway is the number of months a company can continue operating at its current burn rate b...
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